Support is now seen at 0. Attendees and sponsors will be pleasantly surprised by the affordability of all services in the country. August 14th 4:
Euro to NZD – 1 NZD to EUR
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Around the world with Narendra Modi: PM's foreign trips cost exchequer Rs 1,cr. Employees in Mumbai work the longest hours, take least vacation days: The NZD has defied the general risk off mood with equities dropping below Jan lows as we believe it should be trading a lot lower if we look at historical price movement and the unprecedented moves in global equities. Friday saw equity prices on the improve and the kiwi followed pushing up to 0.
Next week we have a fairly chocka data calendar ending with Non-Farm Payroll so we should see plenty of swings. That recovery stalled however ahead of a key resistance area around 0. It would take a sustained move above 0. That leaves open the potential for a nasty short squeeze at some stage. I would suggest a sustained move over 0. Quarterly CPI printed at 0. US Retail Sales for September printed at 0. Offshore risk is still creating most of the direction in markets with the kiwi still trading in a bearish channel from mid-April, buyers of USD should look at this spike as prices above 0.
As we have said US Treasury yields as high as they are this week 3. Buyers of USD should consider this spike before downward momentum resumes in line with the bearish channel in play from April this year.
Starting the week around 0. Recently the NZD has been driven mainly off broader global macro themes soaking up additional downside pressure accounting for relative underperformance. Local economic data has been unimpressive with the NZD let down by softer global dairy auction results and Institute of Economic Research Business Confidence results which highlighted distressing weaker earnings. Sellers of US Dollars should be selling on spikes lower, certainly under 0. We started the week almost at a respectable 0.
Markets seem to have possibly already priced in a favorable result above the , expected. Continuing its bearish decline from 0. If this is the case, we may see the NZD under further pressures significantly undermining the forecasted cycle low. The RBNZ cash rate announcement showed a less than dovish tone by governor Adrian Orr spiking the kiwi back to nearly top out at 0. This level was not supported again dropping lower to trade just above the 0.
Comments by the RBNZ were fairly typical with policy to remain expansionary for a period of time, well into 0. Ongoing trade tensions were mentioned and will have a detrimental effect on the NZD over the long term. Buyers of USD should continue to buy on spikes. Tomorrow will see Business confidence data and given the larger than expected GDP figure last week interest will focus on whether this reflected in the confidence data, we suspect not and look for a weaker result.
Current ranges should hold but we continue to favour NZD downside and a test of 0. It hit a high of 0. Given the continued solid US data we favour the USD and with another Fed rate hike in the wings look for a move back to the 0. The pair sold off from its high of 0.
If risk markets continue into next week topside will be limited with the possibility we could see 0. Producer price Index dropped to -. US CPI also disappointed at 0. The kiwi rallied off the low to post 0. US Retail Sales is due tonight, will we see a treble this week for weak US data and the kiwi retest 0. If the US president can hold off speaking to the media which includes tweeting we may see the kiwi squeeze a little higher.
Certainly buyers of USD should consider this spike above 0. Exchange Rates The current interbank midrate is: Lower lows and lower highs has been the theme from the high of 0. US strength supported by solid economic data has seen the US Dollar trade as one of the strongest currencies. US Non Farm Payroll numbers printed up at , compared to , expected pushing investors into the greenback. No-where do we see any economic print to suggest economists and experts are expecting the kiwi to dive in the 0.
Most market makers expect further declines in the pair as the US economy improves with rate hikes and the like. We think somewhere in the 0. It may not happen this month, but it seems likely at some stage we will start to see a surge in Average Hourly Earnings and that will almost certainly translate into an even stronger USD.
The New Zealand dollar NZD saw relentless pressure last week driven lower by declining business confidence and global trade tensions. For the time being the focus remains firmly on the downside and the potential to retest the mid-August low of 0.
Tonight we have a Global Dairy Trade auction to digest, then later in the week key US employment data is set for release. Markets started the week on a risk positive note with a deal done between Mexico and USA boosting investors to buy risk associated products such as the kiwi.
ANZ Business Confidence released 5 points lighter than the expected The New Zealand Dollar is still caught in a long term bearish channel from the high of 0. Buy on spikes above 0. The kiwi started the week at 0. For now the kiwi will take every positive market risk sentiment it can get, we suggest buying the US on spikes like the one in place currently. Through most of this week risk sentiment has favored the greenback as markets have digested updates in Turkey.
Reaching a low of 0. With a lack of local NZ data to publish this week, the kiwi has been at the mercy of offshore markets and US based economic data. US Retail Sales printed at 0. The kiwi broke below this mark and sits at a March low of 0. Although markets await further economic data flows to gauge further direction, the US Dollar has slowed a tad but price action still looks weak.
A lack of local economic data releasing this week, the kiwi will be at the mercy of US based economic publications such as Retail Sales and Building permits.
Risk markets could re-enter currency markets at any point with geopolitical issues unresolved so expect further sentiment to play out.
The kiwi has been the beneficiary of a dovish RBNZ statement yesterday with Adrian Orr leaving the rate unchanged at 1. His comments spooked markets after he said its possible the benchmark rate may need to be adjusted lower if growth and wages are not favourable going forward. Price has made a huge break below several recent support levels such as 0. We may get a near term rebound higher today with investors and market makers squaring up short positions to close weekly positions.
US quarterly CPI releases later today and should offer plenty of volatility. Buyers of USD should consider at these levels with further declines in the kiwi expected. The review will hopefully hold key information on whether he plans to hike rates or lower rates given things remain in the balance with slowing growth and rising inflation.
With Trade disputes still very much a big market driver and interest rate differentials between the US at 2. US Consumer Confidence on the contrary saw a rise in spirits with no slow down in sight expected for the US economy — this will keep households optimistic. The Federal Reserve left their cash rate on hold as expected at 2. The kiwi has dropped to 0. Trump is yet to tweet anything controversial yet this week, while markets await a slew of economic releases. Risk sentiment will play a huge role as the week progresses which could affect the kiwi developing momentum either way.
The big ticket economic events for the week is NZ employment data followed by the Federal Reserve Funds rate and statement. The statement could make life interesting with recent data being super positive, we could see a very optimistic reading with regards to ongoing gradual policy tightening and a bolder statement on intent. On a broader long term scale we still expect further NZD weakness to prevail. The New Zealand Dollar spiked to 0. The USD bullish tone which followed took the kiwi back lower through the weekly open to 0.
Next week holds a significant docket of economic announcements including the Federal Funds Rate which is expected to remain on hold at 2. Expect plenty of volatility. More sideways action is expected around the 0. Currently sitting back around 0. From a fundamental perspective, we continue to favour the downside, especially if USD strength is maintained, with a break of 0.
Conversely a push over 0. Given the softer data yesterday from China the NZD still looks vulnerable and we continue to favour the downside over the coming week. Upside moves should be limited by the 0. A fall below 0.
Risk products are all higher overnight, the DOW and Nasdaq up over 0. China has vowed to respond with retaliatory tariffs but Donald Trump has stated he will hike the tariffs to include B worth of Chinese goods if they do. If this heat up we could see another round of risk averse sentiment stalling the kiwi dragging it back to its lows. We saw a small spike higher to 0. A bounce higher to 0. Today is a US holiday- Independence Day which should add increased volatility to currencies with investors and market players being thin.
Solid support of 0. Donald Trump added more twists and turns in the ongoing trade war, largely the market investors has purchased the greenback across the board while risk currencies like the kiwi have been forgotten. The RBNZ cash rate announcement showed no surprises with markets generally expecting a dovish statement with the rate remaining unchanged at 1.
Adrian Orr hinted the economy could be operating at slightly slower than anticipated at this stage of the year. With a quiet calendar next week for the NZD price movement will be massively driven by the slew of US based economic data to publish including Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment figures which traditionally shift the markets in large chunks. Buyers of USD should buy on spikes, problem is we have not really seen any this week, the only positive is that the pair has levelled out around 0.
President Trump has continued with the trade tariff speak attacking China again saying he would stop Chinese technology companies from investing in US based companies. He also Tweeted that any country with unfair tariffs on US made products should be removed immediately or face a stern response from US policy makers. Buyers of USD should look at spikes above 0. NZ quarterly GDP released at the expected 0. This triggered a delayed sell off in the kiwi as it battled to stay above key long term support of 0.
US home sales printed weaker at 5. Buyers of the greenback USD should consider the overnight spike back to 0. Key support is at 0. We have bounced off this mark several times since so we expect this to hold for the meantime. Trade tensions have reared its ugly head again with President Trump signalling further tariffs against Chinese imported products with China retaliated slamming tariffs on American made products.
We will hear more about this at the end of the week with President Trump winding into it saying he will instigate more tariffs soon. US Retail Sales and Unemployment claims both printed better than markets were expecting at 0. FOMC as expected raised their cash rate to 2. Risk in the markets also took a hit with the ECB European Central Bank startling markets with dovish comments instead of the upbeat rhetoric we were expecting.
This dropped the EUR to fresh lows and dampened any appetite for investors to take on risk. The rot may have set in with markets realising the US Dollar USD is undervalued, we think risk lies to the downside with massive support at 0.
Markets will lack any conviction today with the Singapore summit in place and FOMC meetings later this week. We will see if the NZD has the appetite to break from its theme and develop fresh momentum in any direction.
Risk appetite will certainly be the main driver. The fear is that if they raise rates to fast this could raise the risk of the economy falling back into a recession. If inflation goes higher the Federal Reserve might look to tighten up credit at the detriment of rising growth — a fine line. Buyers of USD have recently seen prices dip well below 0. Currencies have moved in strange ways this week with markets lacking any real fundamental analysis to grab hold of.
The G7 meeting will take centre stage today with tariffs the main point of discussion. Technically the kiwi is trading in a bullish trend from the low of 0. Geopolitical issues were put aside with equities and commodities all higher towards the end of the week and flowing over into this week with the NZD opening higher. The kiwi is up sharply pushing through the magical handle of 0. With the kiwi above 0. After initially dipping down to 0.
A bunch of US data has been released overnight including Personal Consumption Expenditure and Personal Spending, both printing better than expectation and erasing early week nervousness. We should see further upside in the pair as we think risk products will be favored in the short term. The kiwi is bang on 0. Currency Exchange Quotes or Apply for an account. The kiwi has been choppy but resilient against the favoured US Dollar USD as markets have largely chosen to stay clear of risk products such as the NZD with geopolitical uncertainties.
In-fact one could argue the NZD has no right trading where it is — 0. Trade Balance figures printing much higher than predicted late last week have carried the support for the kiwi into this week. Buyers of US Dollars should look for a spike above 0. Risk sentiment in the markets have driven a lot of the movement in currencies this week with the kiwi no exception bouncing like a fart in a spacesuit. Early in the week we saw markets take on risk products as the kiwi took on 0.
For buyers out there looking at the right time to buy USD we see strong support around 0. The trade tariff war of words has been halted as the US and China work on a big picture deal. Massive resistance is still seen at 0. President Trump exiting from the Iran deal has opened up talks on new sanctions with fresh risk of further conflict in the Middle East with a lack of stability there.
A quiet week for the kiwi in terms of local data apart from the Annual Budget, a slew of US based releases should create volatility towards the end of the week with building permits and unemployment claims. Donald Trump has followed through with his earlier threats to pull out from the Iran nuclear deal and the US Treasury Department has announced a new round of sanctions on Iran.
Currently trading at 0. As we have said 0. Data out in the US has been well above expectation with US Private Payroll data adding , workers and the Federal Reserve reconfirming inflation targets for the next few months.
There is minor support down toward 0. While we remain bearish on the NZD, the easy work has now been done and declines from here will be much harder fought. We may well see the NZD find some support soon and enter a period of ranging, before the downside price action eventually reasserts itself. From a high at the beginning of the week of 0. Although USD gains were broad based, the NZD certainly underperformed losing ground on a number of other crosses as well.
Momentum is firmly to the down side and this move may well look to test 0. With little on the local economic calendar, attention will turn to offshore releases, particularly Core Durable Goods orders and US Advance GDP toward the end of the week. Risk has engulfed markets again with investors reaching for safe haven trades as bears take charge. This could be an ongoing theme as we approach tighter global liquidity with mixed worldwide growth making for higher volatility.
Long term the pair is still operating within a range band we have mentioned previously between the low of 0.
It looks like we are going to test the lower end of the range. We have a quiet week ahead with no significant local data releasing other than Trade Balance. Expect movement to be driven by offshore factors. Investors turned to risk aversion late in the week after missile strikes on Syria became a reality, UK, France and the US destroying a number of chemical facilities.
Indications are still to the upside for the New Zealand Dollar NZD with the 40 day moving average still showing a possible rise back to 0. Markets saw this as the ticket to buy risk currencies with the New Zealand continuing to outperform. Further moves north should not be ruled out with the resistance of 0. Indicators mostly point to the upside with the 40 day moving average below current price and the RSI in an overbought region.
Next week we have crucial quarterly CPI numbers with the last quarter printing down on expectation. Rallying to a new high of 0. Commodities and equities were also up, the DOW and Nasdaq both over 0. The US Dollar index fall under The NZD bounced off resistance at 0. With support seen around 0.
The upper band of 0. As the threats continue, markets generally remain of the opinion that the US cannot win a trade war against China, with most eventualities leaving the US with negative consequences. Investors buying USD should keep an eye on the 0. With little local data to be excited about or boost the kiwi, markets have watched as equities and commodities have traded lower pre, and post, Easter break with news of further US and China trade talks negatively impacting optimism.
US Non-Farm Payroll is set to publish later in the week, markets most important announcement of the month, if it prints better than the expected k as it did last month this could bring some much needed stability back to markets.
The pair could test 0. The Fed Rate announcement took the kiwi back to 0. Powell remained neutral in his Fed speech on monetary policy but hinted of a hawkish stance ahead saying they would aggressively hike rates as they needed to through to Consolidating around the 0. The New Zealand Dollar NZD medium term trend remains range bound against the greenback USD , although some weakness in the past 12 hours has seen the pair off the best levels of the week.
It would take an extremely risk adverse market or an unfortunate sequence of local or offshore news for the New Zealand Dollar NZD to be thrust below this key level. When the Fed hike rates 0. A break higher may see the NZD take a peek at the 0. Equities were also higher with the DOW up over 1. The New Zealand Dollar movement this week could be largely governed by investor risk appetite and continuing tariff negotiations.
Little local data suggests movement will be guided by US based markets. Buyers of USD Dollars should not overlook prices north of 0. Opening the week at 0. ANZ Business was underwhelming and offered no reprieve.
Then US President Trump spoke of approving tariffs on the imports of steel and aluminum into the US and sank the greenback. New Zealand Building consents for new homes were flat for January showing approvals at a modest 0. This week sees a bunch of economic data to be released globally with only ANZ Business Confidence of note locally.
FOMC minutes cautioned an imbalance in financial markets may emerge as the economy starts to operate above its expected potential. The New Zealand Dollar trades at 0. Support is now seen at 0.
Remaining at near 6 month highs it remains popular through most trading sessions as investors remain optimistic. Buyers of USD should consider at current levels with markets still volatile, anything could eventuate.
With momentum extremely strong amid a risk on market, short term resistance of 0. Buyers of the US Dollars could think about buying at these levels with uncertainty still in the air prices around 0. Looking fairly robust as always it should continue to appreciate back to early Feb highs of 0.
Medium term support still sits at 0. Light trading to feature over the next two days and we expect 0. It is now back at 0.
There is no main data out for the NZD until next week when we will have another global dairy auction, employment data and the RBNZ announcement. This week with little local data, it will be all about offshore movements and with plenty of headlines out from the US this week has potential to be volatile.
We expect consolidation trading ahead of the Fed meeting at current levels but any breakdown through 0. The NZD was on a tear this week rallying to a high of 0. However, it was knocked back yesterday by CPI data that fell well below expectations, dropping to the 0.
With NZ fundamentals on the turn, low inflation, dropping business confidence levels pitted against a US economy that is accelerating and at least 3 Fed rate hikes now probable over the next year, current NZD levels look unsustainable. A break over 0. Current levels look attractive for sellers of NZD.
Over the last 3 days each high has been lower than the last, 0. The better Global Dairy auction result was supportive but this effect looks as if it is now wearing off. It is now back a little at 0.
After opening the week around the 0. Immediate support is at 0. Given further US Fed rate hikes are anticipated and in the absence of stronger domestic NZ fundamentals, current levels for sellers of NZD look attractive. There remains strong resistance at the 0. Those gains have continued over the Christmas and NY period despite a run of strong US economic releases that one might have suspected would support the USD.
The general theme of the past couple of weeks has been broad based USD weakness, and we saw another bout of that last night. As has been the case recently, it may well be the wage growth numbers that carry more weight than the headline jobs figure.
There is solid resistance around the 0. The move extended this week as commodity currencies lead the gains against a broadly weaker USD. The NZD has traded to a high so far of 0. Key trend support is now seen at 0. Now sitting around the 0. Immediate resistance is now at 0. Support is at 0. Risk overnight is the Global Dairy auction result which if bad could see the NZD slip back into the 0. For now upside looks capped at the 0. We now look for consolidation around the 0. However next week will see market volumes decrease as the holiday season kicks in.
There was little reason for such a bounce but it looks as if the market was a little short the NZD and this little bounce caused short sellers to liquidate their positions, exacerbating the move higher.
This seems to be holding and resisted being sold below 0. Holding around current levels would establish a good base to move higher next week into the 0. The move has mainly on the back of the weaker USD. The pair is now at 0. It is now at 0. We feel the pair should hold current levels to end the week, but progress on the US tax reform package next week should keep NZD under pressure.